朝鲜

仅2022年一年, 朝鲜进行了大约70次导弹试验, 这是自1984年首次发射导弹以来的最高纪录. The missile tests continued through 2023 when 朝鲜 also resumed its space launch program. It claimed to have successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite and pledged to launch three more in 2024. 朝鲜也在寻求加强与俄罗斯的战略合作, 向俄罗斯提供装有常规武器的集装箱, 而俄罗斯则以食物作为回报, 燃料, 以及能够进一步加速朝鲜核计划的武器技术.

不断变化的言论和政策, coupled with the ongoing expansion of its nuclear weapons program and lack of interest in diplomacy, have led some experts to believe that 朝鲜 has made a strategic decision to 发动战争. 朝鲜’s military developments make it increasingly able to threaten its neighbors and more distant countries.

制裁、军事行动或外交?

Discussions between the United States and its allies on how to reduce the threat of 朝鲜’s weapons typically include three options: sanctions, 采取军事行动, 和外交.

制裁 can help reduce 朝鲜’s ability to buy foreign technology that might be useful for weapons and can pressure the Pyongyang government in other ways. 虽然制裁有助于减缓其武器计划的步伐, 朝鲜经常找到规避制裁的方法, 单靠制裁不太可能阻止该国的军事计划.

军事选项 are highly uncertain to be successful and would almost certainly lead 朝鲜 to attack South Korea or other targets with conventional or possibly chemical or nuclear weapons. 平民生命的潜在损失是不可接受的. 结果是, US military officials and other security experts—including the Union of Concerned Scientists—argue that there are no good military options to reduce the threat of 朝鲜’s nuclear weapons.

外交—including open lines of communication and formal and informal talks—has been the most optimal option to date. 外交 acts to alleviate tensions and hostility and lays the groundwork for a longer process to reduce the threat from 朝鲜

过去与朝鲜的一些外交是成功的. 1994年的一项协议避免了与平壤发生冲突的可能, ended 朝鲜’s production of plutonium for nuclear weapons for nearly a decade, 并派遣国际检查员到该国核实禁令. By 2000, 朝鲜 had stopped testing missiles and US negotiators believed they were very close to an agreement that would verifiably stop Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. 不幸的是，乔治·W·布什(George W. 布什政府退出了会谈. In 2003, 朝鲜 withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which it had ratified in 1985.

希望能找到一个和平的解决方案, 六方会谈(美国), 朝鲜和韩国, 日本, 中国, 和俄罗斯)呼吁和平解决安全局势. 美国决定解冻朝鲜的资产, 将朝鲜从支持恐怖主义国家的名单中删除, 作为回报, 朝鲜同意了美国所有的核检查要求, 并关闭其核反应堆. 虽然该协议取得了一些成功, 比如拆除核电站的冷却塔, 朝鲜持续的导弹试验引起了华盛顿的警告.

作为对导弹试验的回应, 联合国安理会威胁要加大制裁力度, 平壤宣布不再参加六方会谈. By 2006, 朝鲜 had restarted missile testing and conducted its first nuclear test. 到目前为止，朝鲜已经进行了六次地下核试验.

Since the Six-Party Talks, there have been some attempts at diplomacy between the US and 朝鲜. 然而, the failed Hanoi summit between Kim and Trump in 2019 halted the efforts, leading to lack of diplomatic engagement between Pyongyang and Washington since then. 朝鲜没有表现出与美国互动的意愿, 外交努力面临重大挑战.

尽管如此, considering the continued advancement in 朝鲜’s nuclear program and its evolving policies, 美国现在应该比以往任何时候都更密切地关注朝鲜.

一个可能的外交途径是通过中国. 中方认为， 和平稳定 朝鲜半岛的局势符合中国的利益. 这两个国家有共同防御条约, 中国长期以来一直是朝鲜最大的贸易伙伴. 而中国 否决了 a US-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution to bolster sanctions on 朝鲜 in 2022, 中国 has refrained from providing assistance to 朝鲜 in developing nuclear weapons. Beijing also supported some sanctions in response to 朝鲜’s nuclear weapon tests. The US should consider resuming discussions with 中国 on the 朝鲜n nuclear problem.

UCS works to support informed governmental policies and public discussion by providing expert assessment of relevant topics, such as 朝鲜n’s missile program and its fissile material production program.